Political Odds

2022 Midterm Elections Odds – Which party will control the Senate?

Last Updated on March 23, 2022

One of the most popular betting markets in the world us on US politics. While you cannot wager legally on it in the United States, it is quite the popular one overseas. Nevertheless, it is a fun market to follow with all the subsidiary markets such as who will control the Senate, win the primaries, and more.

Politics never stops. This includes the political betting landscape, which has expanded in recent years to include many markets. One of these markets includes wagering on the 2022 midterms at sites like PredictIt, which allows you to speculate on who will win in the Presidential Election for 2024, and the midterms in 2022.

Let’s take a look at the 2022 Election odds for the midterms, the odds movement for the betting market, and a look at why this election cycle is an important one to follow.

2022 Election Odds – Who will win the Senate?

With the midterms elections taking place in 2022, the buzz surrounding the odds for who will win the midterms has begun. The 2022 elections are big for politics, as it will determine who control the Senate. With a Democratic President in the White House, this becomes as important as ever for either party. When things are important and popular, wagering occurs.

Here is a look at the latest odds (prices) for which party will win the 2022 midterms and effectively win the Senate.

PartyLatest Odds to Win Senate (PredictIt)
Republican77c (-335)
Democratic26c (+285)

The odds (prices) are from PredictIt.org. They use a “price” formula, which indicates on a dollar scale. The higher the price, the better the odds. For example, 26c is low-percentage odds to win and 77c is high-percentage odds to occur.

Midterm Election Odds Movement Timeline

Without a doubt, the craziest part of following the election odds for any market is the odds movement. The 2020 election was one of the most bizarre markets of all time, following the 2016 election. For the 2022 midterm elections, the odds have already been a whirlwind. Let’s take a look at the movement, courtesy of PredictIt. These odds started in February 2021 and have been tracked, with the latest being at the top of the chart.

DateDemocratic Price to win MidtermsRepublican Price to win Midterms
Current Price26c (+285)77c (-335)
March 16, 202224c77c
March 2, 202223c79c
February 15, 202225c76c
February 1, 202225c75c
January 15, 202230c72c
January 1, 202230c72c
December 1530c71c
December 130c70c
November 2032c70c
November 1032c67c
October 2045c56c
October 1047c55c
September 3047c55c
September 1649c55c
September 247c54c
August 1451c51c
July 1652c50c
June 452c49c
May 550c51c
April 2854c48c
April 2154c47c
April 1454c48c
April 754c46c
March 3154c47c
March 2455c46c
March 1754c47c
March 1057c46c
March 356c46c
February 2656c47c
February 1956c45c
February 1254c45c

Senate Leans Republican after State of the Union

In early March 2022, Joe Biden delivered an updated State of the Union address with many topics on the docket. The odds for which party to win the Senate adjusted slightly to the address, as Republicans still remain heavily favored per oddsmakers. Here were the odds after the State of the Union.

  • Republican Senate – 79c (-376)
  • Democratic Senate – 23c (+335)

As States End COVID-19 mandates, Republicans Odds Increase

With various states (and countries around the world) ending COVID-19 restrictions and mandates, there was some movement in the market to win the Senate in 2022. As of late January 2022, here were the odds

  • Republican Senate – 75c (-300)
  • Democratic Senate – 25c (+300)

These moved again in February 2022, to:

  • Republican Senate – 79c (-376)
  • Democratic Senate – 23c (+335)

New Year, Same Odds for Republicans to win the Senate in 2022

With the turn of the New Year into 2022, the odds remained unchanged. Republicans are still favored to lead the senate in 2022 per PredictIt. Here are the odds in the early New Year.

  • Republican Senate – 72c (-257)
  • Democratic Senate – 30c (+233)

With the midterms getting closer, the odds not moving indicates that the market is quite strong towards Republicans.

After 2021 Election Day, Republicans become favorites in Senate

As you can see in the latest odds, Republicans have massively swayed the prices in terms of who will win the 2022 Midterms. Per PredictIt, they are at 70c right now, which is close to a -230 price with traditional odds. As far as the Democrats, they are at 30c, which is over +230 in traditional formats. The recent polls with Virginia and other states flipping red, or looking to flip red, it has hurt the Democrats’ chance at a blue Senate after 2022.

As of the day after Election Day, the odds were:

  • Republicans (67c)
  • Democrats (32c)

Democrats and Republicans Battle for Senate Control

Why are the 2022 midterm elections so important? This is for the control of the Senate. The House of Representatives market is heavily favoring the Republicans, and of course we know that the President is from the Democratic Party. This means that the Senate will determine which leads “2-to-1″ amongst these three areas.

If the Republicans win the Senate, they would control the House (as favored) and the Senate which gives them both, but not the Presidency. If the Democrats win the Senate, they will have both that and the White House, but not the House (assuming odds are correct).

Keep an eye on these odds and prices, as they will change throughout the 2021 and 2022 campaigns before the elections occur. Looking for more 2024 election info? Check out the 2024 Republican Nominee odds, here.

Patrick Cwiklinski

Patrick Cwiklinski

Following a lengthy sports journalism career primarily covering MMA, hockey, and college sports for publications like theScore, The Province, and VICE Sports, Patrick transitioned into the world of content marketing. His goal was to bridge the gap between great writing and SEO success, and he’s brought that same mindset to Action Rush.

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